Spatial configuration of amazon deforestation: An analysis of market and land occupation spillovers in the San Martin region
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51252/race.v5i2.1700Keywords:
spatial autocorrelation, cocoa, land-use change, agricultural frontier, Spatial Durbin ModelAbstract
The boom in the cacao market is significantly altering the way land is utilized in our Amazon. Far from being the subject of rigorous analysis, current literature has overlooked this in many quantitative studies. Therefore, this study sought to analyze the influence of commercial variables associated with the cacao market on deforestation, focusing on the San Martín region, and to identify the existence of spillover effects. This was achieved by estimating a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) using a Queen contiguity matrix, calculating the Global Moran's I, and contrasting its estimators with the traditional Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. It was concluded that there is a positive and significant spatial autocorrelation for forest loss, driven by externalities that expanded the agricultural frontier. Furthermore, it was determined that the most highly capitalized districts were the primary drivers of this expansion, and that it has now become a geographically interconnected phenomenon driven by economic incentives, demonstrating that local conservation policies proved ineffective by omitting spatial contagion.
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